Climate change, not El Niño, is the main force behind the fires in southern Europe
Wildfires in Greece, Portugal and Spain and a deadly US heatwave are unfolding in conditions made more dangerous by human-driven warming, while El Niño is not the direct explanation for the European fires.
The immediate risk is to residents, tourists, firefighters and vulnerable people exposed to smoke and heat. The broader importance is that heat and fire are no longer isolated summer disruptions; they are recurring public-safety, health, transport and insurance risks.
The subject is a linked extreme-weather episode: active wildfires in southern Europe and a major US heatwave. The main entities are Greek, Portuguese and Spanish emergency services, the US National Weather Service, AP, Copernicus satellite mapping, the WMO and IPCC climate science assessments.
Background
Mediterranean countries have long had summer wildfires, but hotter summers and longer dry spells increase fire weather risk. The IPCC has assessed with high confidence that human-caused climate change has made hot extremes more frequent and more intense across most land regions.
Impact
Regional — Belgium is not the centre of the story. The relevant Belgian impact is on holidaymakers, airlines, insurers and families following local evacuation or health instructions in southern Europe.
Opposing perspectives
- Climate scientists and attribution researchers
Climate scientists emphasise that individual ignition points still matter, but human-driven warming raises the baseline temperature and dries vegetation faster, making heatwaves and dangerous fire weather more likely and more severe.
- Fire services and land-management officials
Fire services stress immediate prevention: negligence, sparks, barbecues, machinery and poor vegetation management turn dangerous weather into active fires. Their focus is on ignition control, evacuation discipline and firefighting capacity.
Sources & evidence
- Associated Press · 2026-07-05
- Associated Press · 2026-07-05
- Axios · 2026-07-06
- VRT NWS
- IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group I · 2021-08-09
- European Commission Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations