Is Vlaams Belang pulling away from N-VA in Flanders after its worst post-election poll?
A new HLN/VTM political poll reports Vlaams Belang with a clear lead as the largest party in Vlaanderen, while N-VA records its weakest polling result since the June 2024 elections. The finding matters because N-VA is no longer only a Flemish opposition force: its former chairman, Bart De Wever, is now Prime Minister of Belgium, and his party anchors the federal Arizona coalition with MR, Les Engagés, CD&V and Vooruit. Polls do not allocate power, and Belgium is still in the 2024-2029 legislative cycle, but the signal is politically awkward. It suggests that N-VA is paying a governing-party cost while Vlaams Belang, led by party chairman Tom Van Grieken, can keep campaigning from opposition on migration, purchasing power, security and Flemish autonomy.
For readers in Belgium, the practical point is not that an election is imminent. The next regular federal and regional elections are due in 2029. The point is that polling pressure shapes how parties behave now. N-VA must defend federal compromises on budget, pensions, migration, defence and state reform while also competing with Vlaams Belang for Flemish nationalist voters. Vlaams Belang can present itself as the uncompromised alternative, especially if voters judge that the federal government is moving too slowly or asking too much of households. For expats and EU-institution staff, the poll is a useful warning that Belgian federal politics remains strongly conditioned by Flemish electoral competition even when policy decisions are formally federal or European-facing.
The subject is the balance of power on the Flemish right. N-VA, formally the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie, is a Flemish nationalist and centre-right party that became Belgium's largest federal party in the 2024 Chamber election and now leads the federal government through Prime Minister Bart De Wever. Vlaams Belang is a far-right Flemish nationalist opposition party led by Tom Van Grieken. It made major gains in the 2024 federal, Flemish and European elections but remained outside government because most parties maintain a cordon sanitaire against cooperation with it. The new poll, reported by Het Laatste Nieuws, places Vlaams Belang ahead in Flanders and marks the slechtste peiling N-VA since verkiezingen, according to the seed report.
Background
Flemish politics has been shaped for decades by competition between nationalist parties and by Belgium's federal structure. N-VA emerged from the Volksunie tradition and became the dominant Flemish party after 2010 by combining Flemish autonomy with a governing image. Vlaams Belang, successor to Vlaams Blok, has long been excluded by the cordon sanitaire, but it has repeatedly polled strongly and gained in the 2019 and 2024 cycles. The 2024 elections were important because N-VA survived the Vlaams Belang challenge, remained the largest party in the Chamber, and then moved from opposition into federal leadership. That makes any post-election slide more sensitive than an ordinary mid-term dip.
Impact
Regional — The impact is primarily Flemish. In Vlaanderen, the poll strengthens the perception that Vlaams Belang is setting the pressure line on the right, while N-VA must balance its Flemish profile with federal responsibility. In Brussels and Wallonia, the immediate effect is indirect: francophone coalition partners will watch whether N-VA hardens its tone to prevent further leakage to Vlaams Belang.
Opposing perspectives
- Vlaams Belang opposition frame
Vlaams Belang will read the poll as evidence that a large part of the Flemish electorate wants a sharper nationalist and migration line than the governing parties are delivering. Tom Van Grieken's party can argue that N-VA entered federal power but is constrained by francophone and centre-left partners.
- N-VA governing frame
N-VA can answer that polls are not elections and that governing Belgium requires results, not protest positioning. From this view, Prime Minister Bart De Wever's test is whether the federal coalition can deliver on budget discipline, labour-market reform, migration and defence while keeping Flemish voters convinced that N-VA still shapes policy.
- Francophone coalition frame
MR and Les Engagés, N-VA's francophone partners in the federal Arizona coalition, have an interest in preventing Flemish polling pressure from pulling the government into symbolic communautaire conflict. Their priority is likely to be federal governability, budget work and socio-economic reforms rather than a race between Flemish nationalist parties.
- Centre-left and green opposition frame
Vooruit is inside the federal government but competes with Groen and PVDA-PTB on the left for voters uneasy about austerity and right-wing pressure. These constituencies may frame the poll less as a Vlaams Belang breakthrough than as evidence that the federal debate is being pulled towards migration, security and identity at the expense of social policy.