NOAA says El Niño has returned as forecasters warn of stronger heat and rainfall extremes
Updated: 26 June 2026, Brussels. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on 11 June that El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27. The IRI climate centre said on 22 June that Pacific readings show El Niño intensifying. The French-language warning frame, “canicules et pluies torrentielles,” reflects the main risk: higher global heat and sharper regional rainfall shifts, not a single automatic forecast for Belgium.
NOAA says stronger El Niño events tilt the odds toward expected climate impacts, although they do not deliver the same result everywhere. For readers, the practical issue is preparation: heat-health plans, water management, agriculture, travel disruption and flood readiness all depend on seasonal risk signals becoming clearer before late summer and autumn.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a Pacific ocean-atmosphere cycle tracked by NOAA and IRI through sea-surface temperatures, winds and pressure patterns. NOAA said the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index reached +0.7 C in early June, while IRI reported a later weekly value of +1.7 C centred on 17 June, showing rapid strengthening in the central Pacific.
Background
IRI notes that El Niño and La Niña events often develop from April to June, peak between October and February, usually last 9 to 12 months and recur every two to seven years. NOAA says the historical record used for ranking major events goes back to 1950.
Impact
Regional — For Belgium, the impact is indirect. The Royal Meteorological Institute remains the authority for Belgian heat, thunderstorm and rainfall warnings; El Niño is a background climate signal rather than a local weather forecast for Brussels, Wallonia or Flanders.
Opposing perspectives
- NOAA forecasters
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center presents the event as established and strengthening, with a specific 63% probability that November-January reaches very strong El Niño levels in the historical record that starts in 1950.
- WMO risk communicators
The World Meteorological Organization’s public message, reported by The Guardian, stresses preparedness and uncertainty around strength, warning against treating every strong El Niño as a uniform global disaster forecast.