Russian forces shift to air raids as ground gains slow in Ukraine
Russian forces are maintaining heavy missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, but recent battlefield assessments point to weaker momentum on the ground. The Institute for the Study of War assessed in early June that Ukrainian forces had largely halted Russia's spring-summer offensive so far, while Black Bird Group data cited in battlefield reporting put Russian territorial gains in May at only 14 square kilometres. Ukraine's commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Ukrainian forces had retaken more than 230 square miles since the start of 2026, a claim that should be read as a military-side assessment rather than neutral accounting. The shift matters because Moscow can still punish Ukraine from the air even if ground advances slow. For Europe, it keeps the pressure on air defence deliveries, sanctions enforcement and NATO spending decisions rather than producing a clean turning point in the war.
For Belgian residents, voters and taxpayers, the immediate issue is not a distant front line but the durability of Europe's Ukraine policy. NATO's 2025 Hague declaration says allies can count direct support for Ukraine toward defence spending, which links Belgian budget choices to battlefield endurance. Belgian businesses also remain exposed to EU sanctions compliance and energy-security decisions. Ukrainian families in Belgium, defence-sector workers, federal officials and EU staff in Brussels will all read stalled Russian ground gains differently from continued mass air attacks: the war may be shifting, not ending.
Oleksandr Syrskyi (Ukraine's commander-in-chief since February 2024) is the senior officer publicly presenting Kyiv's battlefield claims. Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine's president since 2019) is pressing allies for air defence and long-range support. Vladimir Putin (Russia's president) remains the central decision-maker behind Moscow's war aims. The Institute for the Study of War (Washington-based conflict research institute) publishes daily open-source assessments of the front. Black Bird Group (Finnish open-source military analysis collective) tracks territorial changes in Ukraine. DeepState (Ukrainian open-source mapping project) is widely used to follow frontline control, though it is not an official arbiter. Donbas (eastern Ukrainian industrial region including Donetsk and Luhansk) remains Russia's core stated territorial objective. NATO (the Brussels-based transatlantic defence alliance) links Ukraine support to European deterrence. The European Commission (EU executive in Brussels) is preparing further sanctions against Russia.
Background
Russia's full-scale invasion began on 24 February 2022 after eight years of conflict following the 2014 annexation of Crimea and war in Donbas. Earlier Ukrainian counteroffensives around Kharkiv in September 2022 and Kherson in November 2022 showed that Russian lines could be forced back, but Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive struggled against dense minefields and prepared defences. NATO's 2025 Hague declaration later framed Russia as a long-term Euro-Atlantic threat and tied Ukraine support to allied defence investment. The current pattern resembles a recurring wartime dynamic: limited ground movement accompanied by intensified long-range strikes on cities, energy sites and logistics.
The wider picture
The broader contest is about whether Russia can outlast Ukraine and its Western backers through attrition. Slower Russian ground gains weaken Moscow's claim to inevitable victory, but sustained bombardment shows it can still impose costs. For NATO and the EU, the central question is whether industrial capacity, sanctions enforcement and political unity can keep pace with a long war.
Why now
The story is timely because recent June battlefield assessments show weaker Russian territorial momentum at the same time as missile and drone attacks remain frequent. That contrast changes the interpretation of the war: the visible bombardment does not necessarily mean Moscow is advancing successfully on the ground.
What to watch
Watch for updated open-source territorial data for June, Russian assault rates in Donbas, Ukraine's ability to sustain counterattacks, EU agreement on the proposed 21st sanctions package, and allied announcements on air-defence systems before the next NATO summit cycle.
Opposing perspectives
- Ukrainian military command
Oleksandr Syrskyi's framing is that Ukraine has regained initiative in selected sectors and that Russian attacks are failing to convert manpower and firepower into meaningful ground gains. This view treats the uptick in air attacks as coercion and compensation, while accepting that Kyiv still needs sustained Western air defence and ammunition.
- Institute for the Study of War / open-source analysts
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia's spring-summer offensive has been largely halted so far, but this is not the same as Russian defeat. The strongest version of this view is cautious: tactical slowing can create diplomatic and logistical opportunities for Ukraine, yet Moscow retains capacity for air strikes and renewed assaults.
- Russian foreign ministry and Kremlin-aligned position
Russia's foreign ministry has argued that European states are prolonging the war by backing Kyiv and pushing sanctions. In this frame, continued missile, drone and ground operations are presented as pressure to force Ukraine and its allies toward Moscow's terms, not as evidence that the offensive is failing.
- European Commission / sanctions advocates
The European Commission argues that tightening sanctions is necessary because battlefield pressure and economic pressure reinforce each other. Its logic is that limiting finance, oil revenue, shadow-fleet activity and military-linked technology makes Russia's war effort more costly, even if sanctions do not produce an immediate military stop.
Sources & evidence
- France 24, Ukraine : derrière les bombardements réguliers, un essoufflement de l'offensive russe · 2026-06-14
- The Guardian, Ukraine war briefing: Russia losing on the ground so pivots to air war, say analysts · 2026-06-04
- The Guardian, Ukraine war briefing: Trump G7 and Zelenskyy update · 2026-06-14
- NATO, The Hague Summit Declaration · 2025-06-25
- The Guardian, EU plans to ban Russian soldiers from bloc in fresh sanctions on Moscow · 2026-06-09
- Institute for the Study of War, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment series