belgiumpulse
Search
Vlaams Belang overtakes N-VA in new Flemish poll
← Flanders
POLLING

Vlaams Belang overtakes N-VA in new Flemish poll

An Ipsos voting-intention poll conducted from 1 to 9 June 2026 puts Vlaams Belang first in Flanders on 26.6%, ahead of N-VA on 22.3%, while the same poll gives Vooruit 12.9%, CD&V 12.6%, PVDA 10.1%, Groen 7.0% and Anders 6.9%. The result is politically awkward for Prime Minister Bart De Wever's N-VA because it comes after a March 2026 Ipsos poll showed the two Flemish nationalist parties almost tied, with N-VA fractionally ahead. A single poll is not an election forecast, but the direction matters: Flemish right-wing competition remains unresolved even after N-VA entered the federal premiership in February 2025. The broader federal picture is not a simple Vlaams Belang breakthrough because the same polling series shows different leaders in Wallonia and Brussels. Belgium's governing arithmetic still depends on language-group balances, coalition acceptability and the cordon sanitaire around Vlaams Belang.

Belgium Impulse Editorial·12 June 2026·3 min read·8 sources
Key signal

For Flemish voters, the poll tests whether De Wever's move into federal power is strengthening N-VA or exposing it to pressure from Vlaams Belang. For Belgian workers, families and businesses, the stakes are indirect but real: party strength shapes future positions on migration, taxation, pensions, state reform and budget cuts. For federal officials and coalition partners, the figures are a warning that the current Arizona coalition may face a stronger opposition narrative from both Vlaams Belang and the left before the 2029 election cycle.

Vlaams Belang (Flemish nationalist, anti-immigration party founded in 2004 after Vlaams Blok was condemned under anti-racism law) is the main far-right force in Flanders. N-VA, or Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (Flemish nationalist conservative party founded in 2001 from the Volksunie split), leads the federal government. Bart De Wever (N-VA politician, born 1970, Belgian prime minister since 3 February 2025) is the first Flemish nationalist to head Belgium's federal cabinet. Ipsos (international polling company) conducted the survey behind the latest figures. Vooruit (Flemish social-democratic party), CD&V (Flemish Christian democrats), PVDA/PTB (unitary Marxist left party), Groen (Flemish greens) and Anders (the rebranded Open Vld liberal party, renamed in January 2026) are the other Flemish actors in the poll. Le Soir, RTL TVI, Het Laatste Nieuws and VTM are the media partners that publish the Grand Barometer polling series.

Background

The pattern echoes the run-up to the 9 June 2024 elections, when pre-election surveys often suggested Vlaams Belang could overtake N-VA in Flanders, but official federal results left N-VA ahead nationally with 24 Chamber seats and Vlaams Belang with 20. Vlaams Belang nevertheless rose strongly in the Flemish Parliament and became first in the Dutch-speaking electoral college for the 2024 European election. The cordon sanitaire dates from the late 1980s and was reinforced after Vlaams Blok's 2004 racism conviction, limiting Vlaams Belang's path from votes to office.

Why now

The story is timely because the 1-9 June 2026 Ipsos Grand Barometer is the latest major voting-intention snapshot after Bart De Wever's first full year as federal prime minister and after earlier 2026 polling showed N-VA and Vlaams Belang nearly tied.

OIS Intelligence

What to watch

Watch whether later 2026 polls confirm a stable Vlaams Belang lead, whether N-VA changes its federal messaging, and whether French-speaking parties harden their refusal to cooperate with any coalition dependent on Vlaams Belang after the next election.

Impact

Regional — The regional split is central. In Flanders, Ipsos puts Vlaams Belang first at 26.6% and N-VA second at 22.3%, according to the 1-9 June 2026 Grand Barometer. In Wallonia, the same poll puts PS ahead at 29.0%, with Les Engagés and MR close behind, while in Brussels it puts PTB first at 24.8%. That contrast matters federally because a Flemish nationalist lead does not translate automatically into Belgian governing power; coalitions still require Dutch- and French-speaking partners able to survive their own regional electorates.

Opposing perspectives

  1. Vlaams Belang supporters

    Vlaams Belang supporters can argue that the Ipsos figures show the party is no longer a protest exception but the leading Flemish electoral force. In that frame, continued exclusion through the cordon sanitaire looks less like democratic hygiene and more like established parties insulating themselves from a large share of Flemish voters.

  2. N-VA and federal coalition parties

    N-VA and its coalition partners can argue that polling does not change the governing mandate created after the 2024 election. Their strongest case is that N-VA converted votes into federal leadership, while Vlaams Belang remains unable to assemble acceptable partners across Belgium's language divide.

  3. Francophone democratic parties

    Francophone parties can frame the poll as a Flemish warning signal rather than a Belgian mandate. Their strongest argument is that Wallonia and Brussels show different party dynamics, and that any future federal formula must remain compatible with French-speaking voters' rejection of cooperation with the far right.

Sources & evidence